The Challenge of a Robert Covington Trade

As of Monday January 13th, the Minnesota Timberwolves sit at 12th place in the NBA's Western Conference. They are 2 games behind the 8th seed, the last spot for the playoffs. They are also 6 games behind 7th. Even more challenging is that there are 4 teams in front of them and one virtually tied with them, Sacramento, who is just a half game behind. FiveThirtyEight gives the Timberwolves only a 13% chance of making the playoffs:

The likely hood of missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year means that roster moves may be in order. The Timberwolves are well over the cap and have few assets that would be enticing to other teams. Robert Covington is likely the most desirable target for most NBA teams. Rumors have linked Covington with the Celtics and the Lakers. So today using ESPN's NBA Trade Machine, I am going to explore what those trades would look like, and spoiler alert, it's not an easy match. 

Covington to the Celtics: 

The Celtics likely are interested in adding Covington to their already fairly successful core, so they would be unlikely to include any of their top players. So forget the idea of Jaylen Brown or Jason Tatum teaming with Karl Anthony Towns. Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart and likely Gordon Hayward are not moving to Minneapolis. So we are likely looking at draft picks, matching salary and maybe a young player. 

Luckily, the Celtics are stocked with draft picks. A recent NBC Sports article, "Celtics draft picks: Boston's collection of future assets still impressive" breaks down all the complicated ins and outs of the draft pick protection process. Boston has become historically good at using these protections to create value down the road. 

In short here is what Boston has in the draft pick war chest: 

In the 2020 NBA Draft:

• Memphis Grizzlies This pick is top-6 protected.

• Milwaukee Bucks This pick is top-7 protected and highly likely to be Boston's with Milwaukee thriving in 2019-2020.

• Boston Celtics First Round Pick

and In the 2021 NBA Draft:

• Potentially unprotected Memphis Grizzlies if not used in 2020.

• Boston Celtics First Round Pick

These picks are not part of the Salary Cap calculation for trades, so they are not on the ESPN Trade Machine. I will add them in for each potential scenario.

Scenario One: Covington for Salaries and Picks
In this scenario, the Celtics give up a bit of their front court depth for Covington. Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter could potentially be flipped to another team to continue to add more youth and picks. Carsen Edwards is a lottery ticket who plays the biggest position of need for the Timberwolves. In this scenario, I would assume that one of the future picks would be included, likely either the Celtics 2020 or the Bucks 2020 first round pick. Both of those picks are likely be in the late 20s of the first round.

The ESPN Trade Machine however, does not like this move for the Celtics. Claiming it would decrease their projected wins by 11. In my opinion, that has a lot to do with how ESPN values Enes Kanter. So let's try it without Kanter. 

Replacing Kanter with two more rookies, Vincent Poirier and Grant Williams both works from a salary standpoint and from a projected wins analysis. The Timberwolves would come away with four younger players in Edwards, Poirier, Williams and the draft pick. This would require additional moves from Minnesota as they would be over the roster limit. Would the potential of this trade be worth it? 

Scenario Two: Convington and Contract Chaos

While I mentioned earlier that Gordon Hayward was likely not on the table, there is the possibility of a bigger deal with the Celtics. However, this scenario doesn't provide as much youth and potential. 

At best, the Timberwolves could hope for a 2020/2021 second round pick. I highly doubt that Danny Ainge is going to give up a first when taking on Gorgui Dieng's contract. Teague and Dieng provide depth and may improve the Celtics second unit. Dieng may even allow the Celtics to flip Kanter or Theis for additional assets. Covington steps into Hayward's position and provides more defense for about one third the cost. 

The Timberwolves free up some salary and take a chance on a PG who may grow into a contributor. Hayward could provide shooting opposite KAT and would be an expiring contract next season. 

Scenario Three: Covington to Hollywood

If they returns from the potential Celtic trades didn't impress you, then things are going to get a bit more underwhelming as we look at a potential Lakers trade. Robert Covington would be a great complement to Lebron and Anthony Davis in LA but the contracts involved make any deal a bit of a mess. The Lakers have virtually no draft picks available for trade in the near future and a roster that is very top heavy. 

Yep. It basically is one year of Avery Bradley and two years of Kyle Kuzma for Covington. Some potential cap savings with the expiring contract of DeMarcus Cousins as well. This has to be one of the most underwhelming returns for Covington. Yet, the Lakers seem to be the most commonly mentioned potential destination in the media. 

In my opinion these potential trades are underwhelming, especially with Covington on the books for another year at a decent salary. He seems to be a team leader and has a good relationship with Towns. If these are the offers, I personally may decide to hold onto Covington until the summer and see what other potential offers may come with the new calendar year.